No Country for Leftists? Clientelist Continuity and the 2006 Vote in the Brazilian Northeast

Abstract

Building upon recent studies of the electoral effects of social policy and President Lula da Silva’s coattails in the 2006 Brazilian elections, this article explains the performance of leftist and conservative candidates in elections for governor during that cycle in the Northeast region. The study assesses three systemic factors: the conditional cash transfer program, Bolsa Família, economic growth, and Lula’s coattails on support for right-wing incumbents and left-wing oppositions in the states of Bahia, Maranhnão, and Ceará. Based on the analysis of an original municipal-level dataset and a survey of partisan elites, the findings underscore the importance of urban-based party building strategies across the three states and patterns of elite alliances specific to each state. Alliances made in the capitals coupled with divided conservative establishments, facilitated leftist victories in the examined states. At the same time, variations in alliance patterns and leftist party development across the three states reveal that conservative clientele networks remain vibrant bases of right-wing support, especially in the interior, and despite either social policy or Lula’s coattails.